Treat Ideas Like Experiments

Six years ago, I took some notes that I still return to.

Some things in life are straightforward. You put in the work and you get the result. Getting a degree. Learning to drive. Passing an exam.

But most business and creative work doesn’t operate that way. It’s messy and random, and most people fail. Not because they’re bad at it, but because luck plays a bigger role than anyone wants to admit. And when someone does win, the wins tend to snowball.

So don’t treat your ideas like your baby. Treat them like experiments.

Don’t go all-in on one thing and hope it’s “the one.” Run many experiments. Favor bets that are more likely to work, even if the payoff is smaller. A small win opens the door to bigger ones.

Watch out for survivorship bias. People look at someone successful and reverse-engineer “rules” from their story. “Just follow your passion.” “Just keep showing up.” That ignores everyone who did the exact same thing and got nowhere.

Think in probabilities. Protect your downside before chasing the big win. Make sure you can survive before you try to thrive.

And remember that luck isn’t only something that happens to you. You can set yourself up for it. Stack your skills, knowledge, relationships, and savings in interesting combinations. Stay curious. Put yourself out there so people know what you can do.